Reserve Bank has room for stimulus if another virus wave comes, says Kganyago
The governor hopes the country’s vaccination programme will be rolled out by winter
The SA Reserve Bank has room to provide stimulus in the event of a third wave of coronavirus infections, according to governor Lesetja Kganyago.
“To the extent that there is a third wave that could hit SA and hit its economic activity, we have got the scope to respond,” Kganyago said on Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “But that all depends on the data we see when the third wave sets in — if it does come in.”
Last week, the monetary policy committee (MPC) left the key rate at a record low 3.5% for a third straight meeting and signaled that tightening may start sooner than previously indicated.
That’s even as the country is battling a second wave of infections, after detecting a more infectious strain of the virus known as 501.V2.
While the Bank flagged the risk of a third wave of infections, Kganyago said that monetary policy doesn’t respond to disease but rather to the fallout of infections on economic activity.
He said he hoped the country’s vaccination programme would be rolled out by winter, helping to avert another wave of infections.
While SA’s first vaccines are due to arrive on February 1, it and most other African nations have been slow to procure shots, raising fears that the continent’s recovery will lag behind its trading partners.
“You can’t vaccinate one part of the world and hope that the world will be safe,” Kganyago said. “We are facing a humanitarian crisis and it is important that governments roll out their vaccination programmes as quickly as possible for the benefit of the global community.”
The Bank projects that SA’s economy will return to growth in 2021 and raised its forecast, despite the reintroduction of restrictions to curb the second wave of the pandemic.
It sees GDP expanding by 3.6% this year, well above the International Monetary Fund’s growth estimate of 2.8%.
The implied policy rate path of the Bank’s quarterly projection model indicates two increases of 25 basis points in the second and third quarters of 2021.
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