Business cycle indicator dips for 14th month
On a year-on-year basis, the Reserve Bank’s leading indicator falls again in November
The SA Reserve Bank’s composite leading business cycle indicator declined on an annualised basis for the 14th consecutive month in November, according to data published by the central bank on Tuesday.
The fall of 0.9% continues the streak of declines for the year. On a month-on-month basis it rose 0.5%.
The leading indicator offers a projection of SA’s economic growth cycle for the next six to 12 months by measuring changes in a range of components over time, including among others the number of approved building plans, job advertisement space, manufacturing order volumes and passenger vehicles sold.
Six of the 10 available component time series increased, while four decreased. The largest positive contributions to the movement in the composite leading business cycle indicator in November came from an acceleration in the 12-month percentage change in job advertisement space and an improvement in the BER’s Business Confidence Index, the Bank said.
The largest negative contributions came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.
The composite coincident business cycle indicator, which moves in line with current economic growth, increased by 0.5% in November from the previous month.
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