ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Little hope of retail sales improving
Most economists expect retail sales growth to have softened marginally in March
Despite better-than-expected industrial and mining data last week, there is little optimism that retail sales data due out this week will also surprise on the upside and be strong enough to prevent the economy from having contracted in the first quarter. The first-tier economic data releases due out this week include the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the first quarter of 2019 on Tuesday, followed by March retail sales data on Wednesday. In the final quarter of 2018, SA’s official unemployment rate was 27.1%. It has exceeded 20% since the early 1990s. Such a sustained high unemployment rate is extremely rare for any country that has avoided violent insurrection or a prolonged economic crisis. Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan expects the unemployment rate to worsen to 27.5% in the first quarter of 2019 as unemployment typically rises at the start of the year as temporary employees hired over the festive season are laid off. It is possible that election-related employment m...
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