Higher growth in 2019 not enough to see a ratings upgrade, S&P says
For ratings to move up, GDP growth higher than 2% is needed — a level which SA hasn't seen since 2013
Credit ratings agency S&P Global Ratings is confident that the government under President Cyril Ramaphosa can push growth past the 1.5% mark — but this remains too low for a ratings upgrade. “Our base case is that the ANC wins the election and continues with the structural reforms that they started, particularly reforms that encourage investment which will see higher economic growth,” S&P associate director and primary credit analyst for SA Gardner Rusike said at the agency’s annual conference in Johannesburg on Tuesday. “Growth is still not going beyond 2%. For ratings to go higher, you need more than that,” he said. Rusike said the biggest concern for S&P is economic growth and the impact it has on fiscal consolidation. SA has not seen growth of 2% in five years as investment has lagged. In November, S&P affirmed SA’s long-term currency debt at BB+, the first notch of sub-investment grade, with a stable outlook. The long-term currency rating is at BB, two notches below investment...
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