Growth will disappoint again in 2019 — with little hope for a turnaround in the medium term. The Treasury has revised down its growth forecast for 2019 from 1.7% to 1.5%. Growth is expected to increase to 2.1% by 2021. “Many of the risks that we warned about [in October] have materialised,” finance minister Tito Mboweni said. “We have slower growth but it is still within the forecast framework we’ve put in place,” he said. These forecasts are slightly below the SA Reserve Bank’s latest expectations of growth of 1.7% in 2019, increasing to 2.2% in 2021. “The revisions take into account weaker investment outcomes in 2018, a more fragile recovery in household income, and slower export demand than expected due to moderating global growth,” the Treasury said.

This is double the expected growth for 2018 of 0.7%, after the economy entered a recession in the first half of that year. However, SA has clearly strayed further from the goals set out in the national development plan (NDP), ...

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