ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Labour survey likely to show drop in jobless rate
Quarterly employment gains due to seasonal hiring will be temporary, economist warns
After enduring a recession during the first half of 2018, the economy ended the year firmer with an expected moderation in the jobless rate among improvement in key economic indicators to be released this week. Unemployment is forecast to have declined due to seasonal hiring in the services sector in the fourth quarter of 2018. Stats SA will publish the Quarterly Labour Force Survey on Tuesday. Investec expects unemployment to moderate to 27.1% from 27.5% previously. However, Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan said the gains were temporary. “This hiring is typically reversed in the following quarter,” she said. FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said the bank expected “the outcome to reflect continued pressure in the SA labour market”. Manufacturing production is also forecast to have grown in December. The most recent Absa purchasing manufacturing index indicated better demand conditions, which suggests that the adverse impact of load shedding late in 2018 was limited, Ma...
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