ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Will SA escape recession in third quarter?
Stats SA will release third-quarter GDP figures. Other figures for the quarter have far shown that SA has clawed its way out of recession
The latest GDP figures will overshadow much of the other data expected this week because they will reveal whether SA has emerged from recession. On Tuesday, Stats SA will release third-quarter GDP figures. Other figures for the quarter have so far shown that SA has clawed its way out of recession. While production figures were lower than expected, economists are confident that it is enough to see slight growth. The Bloomberg consensus is 1.9%. However, the expected growth number would not alter full-year GDP forecasts as the year-on-year numbers remained exceptionally weak, warned FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca. GDP contracted in the first and second quarters, placing the economy in recession for the first time since the global financial crisis. Economists define a recession as two successive quarters of GDP decline. In the second quarter growth contracted 0.7%, after a steep 2.6% drop in the first quarter.
"September activity data released has been pretty downbeat. But...