ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Retail figures will indicate whether recession is over
Third-quarter data to be released on Wednesday form part of final GDP puzzle
This week will provide more insight into whether the South African economy has emerged from a recession. The retail production figures, which form the final part of the GDP puzzle, will be released on Wednesday and will indicate how the economy performed in the third quarter. GDP contracted in the first and second quarters, placing the economy in recession for the first time in almost a decade. Economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. While the economy is expected to have grown marginally in the third quarter, it remains too low to make a significant dent on unemployment, poverty and inequality. The economy has been struggling to breach the 2% mark for a decade while unemployment is inching closer to the 30% mark.
The Treasury and the Reserve Bank have slashed their growth forecasts in half to a meager 0.7% in 2018. “Most recent statistics suggest that the economy probably returned to growth off a low base in the third quarter, but there are n...
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