The SA Reserve Bank will walk a tightrope when it hands down its latest interest rate decision, torn between a worsening inflation outlook and an economy that is in the midst of its first recession in a decade. While just three of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) to raise the repo rate, Thursday’s call will be among the most anticipated in 2018, with some analysts saying the rand, higher oil prices and turbulence in emerging markets will force its hand. The rand has dropped more than 7% since the last policy meeting. Others point to an economy that contracted in the first half of 2018, the first recession since the depths of the global financial crisis a decade ago, as a reason for it to stay put. A report on Wednesday that showed the inflation rate unexpectedly dropped in August could tip the scales in favour of no change in policy stance, though the outcome will be too close to call, according to economists, including Investec’s...
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