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SA’s economy probably struggled to gain traction in the second quarter after shrinking at the start of 2018, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said there was a one-in-three chance of recession this year.
About 30 economists polled expect Africa’s second-largest economy to grow by 1.4% in 2018 and by 1.9% in 2019, slightly lower than the median view forecast in July.
The SA Reserve Bank was even more pessimistic at its last monetary policy meeting in July. It forecast that the economy would expand by just 1.2% in 2018, sharply down from a 1.7% projection in May.
For the second quarter, the consensus view sees just 0.6% growth on a quarterly basis. That would be a feeble recovery from the 2.2% contraction recorded for January to March.
"The risk is that the services-driven sector, particularly financial services, fared poorly again in the second quarter, which could be the difference between whether SA avoids slipping into a recession or not," said BNP Paribas economist Je...
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