The week will give a clearer indication whether SA will have another quarter of negative growth or narrowly escape a recession. The mining figures and those on retail which Stats SA will release on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively will be the final pieces of the puzzle. Analysts do not forecast a recession, but admit that the risk is high. "Another GDP contraction in the second quarter is not our baseline case," said Absa economist Miyelani Maluleke. Manufacturing data last week showed the sector again subtracted from GDP growth in the second quarter. But the contraction of 0.1% on overall GDP is small compared to the first quarter’s 6.4%. "We continue to expect very weak GDP growth in the second quarter, but not quite a recession in the first half of the year on a recovery in retail sales, though the risk for recession is elevating," said Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop.
The mining sector has been constrained by policy uncertainty about the Mining Charter, expected ...
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