Even if SA avoids a recession, the country remains at risk of further credit rating downgrades if growth continues to disappoint, analysts said at the weekend. The economy is likely to grow marginally in the second quarter, meaning SA at least avoided slipping into its first recession since the outbreak of the global financial crisis a decade ago. GDP shrank by 2.2% in the first three months of 2018. Statistics SA’s June figures, expected in the next few weeks, will provide a clearer indication of whether the economy contracted or expanded. However, the agricultural sector, which contracted by 24% in the first quarter, remains a wildcard. Many institutions have revised down their growth forecasts in recent weeks on weaker than expected production figures in the mining, manufacturing and retail sectors. "Should 2018 growth disappoint, and 2019 look to do the same, key credit rating agencies have warned that SA could face further credit rating downgrades," said Investec chief economis...
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