The Reserve Bank in Pretoria. Picture: FINANCIAL MAIL
The Reserve Bank in Pretoria. Picture: FINANCIAL MAIL

The Reserve Bank’s March leading indicator results point to an uptick in SA’s economy in six months’ time.

The March figure took the average for the first quarter of 2018 to 107.5 points, a 6% rise from the prior quarter foreshadowing a rise in the business cycle and in turn GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Investec Bank economist Annabel Bishop said this "significant jump, sees the lift tie in with the large leaps in confidence shown by the BER’s consumer and business confidence readings on the substantial reduction in political uncertainty".

But while Tuesday’s leading indicator report predicts good news in the fourth-quarter GDP figures, the Reserve Bank’s figures from the second quarter of 2017 point to bad news when Statistics SA reports the first quarter’s GDP figures on June 5.

Bishop said the Reserve Bank’s leading indicator points to a potential dip in the business cycle and GDP in the first quarter, a risk that Statistics SA’s recent industrial production and retail data have confirmed.

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