As retail sales become the last piece in the GDP puzzle, industry analysts anticipate a weak outcome for the first quarter. Value-added tax (VAT) absorption in retail sales seemed to have driven pre-emptive buying in April when retail trade sales recorded a 4.8% year-on-year increase. But some analysts expect this growth to plateau. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said the sharp contractions in industrial production (manufacturing, mining and electricity) and retail sales in the first quarter of 2018 on a quarter-on-quarter adjusted annualised basis (the headline GDP measurement) indicated a weak outcome for first-quarter GDP growth. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis — the method of calculating quarterly headline GDP growth — retail trade sales had fallen 5.2% in the first quarter of 2018, Bishop said. She calculated that industrial production fell 6.9% and these two contractions indicated there was likely to be a weak outcome for first-quarter GDP...
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