S&P reality check for SA: deteriorating debt and deficit outlook is a problem
The ratings agency's analyst questions how quickly reform efforts will ease structural constraints to economic growth
Ratings agency S&P Global injected a note of reality into the ratings optimism on Tuesday, reminding SA that though February’s budget was much better than October’s medium-term budget, the deficit and debt projections were still worse than in 2017. The agency, which in November junked SA’s local currency rating, also said the country’s economy was not growing nearly fast enough to justify an upgrade — even though its sovereign analyst Gardner Rusike said he brought “some good news”, with S&P doubling its growth estimate for 2018 from 1% to 2% and for 2019 to 2.1%, up from 1.7%. These projections are higher than the forecasts of 1.5% for 2018, rising to 1.8% for 2019, the Treasury pencilled into February’s budget. However, Rusike said the targets in budget 2018 still showed fiscal deterioration compared to a year before, even though they were better than in October’s medium-term budget and S&P was happy with the improvements. “SA is now on a good path but the new fiscal measures don’...
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