The announcement by Moody’s Investors Service of the result of its scheduled review of SA’s sovereign credit rating is the economic story of the week, and most economists are in agreement that the country will avoid a downgrade. A big factor that would have worked in SA’s favour is the February budget, which was well received by Moody’s, as well as by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. The Moody’s announcement is expected on Friday. The rating agency placed SA on review in November 2017. If Moody’s did not downgrade in December, after the medium-term budget policy statement and before the ANC elective conference, "what justification would they have now given how much the political environment and confidence levels have improved?" asked FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca. Moody’s has SA’s foreign-currency and rand-denominated debt at investment grade. Fitch and S&P have rated SA junk. A downgrade by Moody’s would result in SA’s expulsion from the Citi World Government Bond inde...

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