ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Economists expect modest rise in business confidence after miserable seven years
But the index looks unlikely to shift back into positive territory, writes Claire Bisseker
Business confidence, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and SA’s trade balance top the list of economic data releases due this week. First up on Tuesday will be the Rand Merchant Bank (RMB)/Bureau for Economic Research (BER) business confidence index. The index has been volatile since 2011 and it has languished in negative territory, below 50 index points. Seven years "is an unusually long period of relatively depressed sentiment", says RMB chief economist Ettienne le Roux. "No wonder corporate fixed investment has been experiencing one of its own longest down cycles ever." Depressed business confidence reflects weak economic conditions and growing pessimism over the political environment. According to the BER’s quarterly manufacturing survey, 86% of manufacturers rate the political climate as a constraint on their businesses. BNP Paribas economist Jeff Schultz expects the index to have climbed to 40 index points from 35. "While some better-than-expected high-frequen...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.