ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Moody’s scheduled to give ratings update
Most economists would be surprised if Moody’s moves to downgraded SA again so soon, writes Claire Bisseker
The main economic event this week will be a potential update from Moody’s on SA’s sovereign credit ratings, while the latest employment, manufacturing and mining data are expected to confirm the weak state of the country’s economy. Moody’s is scheduled to make an announcement on Friday but is permitted by the regulations to let the date pass unremarked. While SA’s economic and political climate remains uncertain, most economists would be surprised if Moody’s moves again so soon, having downgraded SA’s local and foreign ratings to Baa3, the cusp of junk, in June. BNP Paribas SA economist Jeff Schultz does not believe SA’s situation has deteriorated so dramatically that Moody’s will cut the ratings to junk. Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan expects Moody’s to assess the medium-term budget policy statement in October first, and possibly also the economic policy implications of the ANC elective conference in December, before taking any further ratings actions. "Although our base case sc...
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