ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Quarterly economic growth numbers another hurdle for SA
First-quarter GDP data will show whether the economy is in a recession, writes Claire Bisseker
After a reprieve from two ratings agencies last week, Tuesday sees the release of first-quarter economic growth numbers. They will show whether the economy is in recession. Fitch and S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s sovereign ratings last week, having both cut SA’s foreign-currency rating to junk status in April. Moody’s has yet to move, but is widely expected to cut SA’s local and foreign-currency ratings by one notch to the last rung of investment grade. Its decision is expected on Friday, June 9. Statistics SA (Stats SA) will release the first-quarter GDP data at 11.30am on Tuesday. If the quarter recorded a contraction in growth SA will have slipped into a technical recession. A country technical recession refers to a country having experienced two consecutive quarters of contraction. SA experienced two quarters of contraction in 2016 but as they were the first and final quarter, it avoided a technical recession. The consensus expectation is that the economy has fared s...
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