SA on Friday dodged a further ratings downgrade from S&P Global Ratings (S&P), but remains in the danger zone: Moody’s is expected to cut SA’s ratings to just one notch above junk in the next couple of weeks; and S&P could look to junk the local currency rating in December. S&P, which in April junked SA’s foreign-currency rating after the cabinet reshuffle, on Friday night affirmed its ratings, but kept SA on negative outlook, warning that political risks would remain elevated in 2017. Moody’s will be watching closely to see if economic growth or the October budget disappoint or the finances of SA’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) deteriorate. Political risk could “distract from economic growth enhancing priorities, slow the pace of fiscal consolidation, and impact upon investor and consumer confidence, more than we currently project”, the agency said. S&P is the only one of the three ratings agencies whose local currency rating, on SA’s rand-denominated debt, is a notch higher than ...

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