The S&P 500 has been on a tear since October 2019. The world’s largest equity index has gained almost 20% in the four months since then. That move has been particularly linear, with very few shallow pullbacks along the way. Such an aggressive move higher has meant that the market has moved quite a long way above its mean.

A popular mean or average to look at for any market is the 200-day moving average. The direction of this moving average is a useful indicator of whether the market is in a bullish or bearish state. In a bull market the price will be above the 200-day moving average and the moving average will point upwards. Vice versa for a bear market...

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