Sasol lowers guidance for Natref and fuel sales volumes

Energy group Sasol has maintained its 2025 market guidance across its business segment except for Natref and fuels sales volumes, which it has revised downwards.

The group said in its production and sales update for the three months to end-September that mining saleable production for the first quarter of 2025 was 1% lower than the previous quarter and 4% down on the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Coal quality and operational challenges affected production, which led to higher external coal purchases.

In Mozambique, gas production for the first quarter was 1% higher than the previous quarter and 3% higher than a year ago. This was despite the planned shutdown at the central processing facility in September.

Fuel production volumes in the Secunda operation were 11% lower than the previous quarter due to the phase shutdown in the first quarter and 2% below a year ago, mainly due to coal quality challenges and lower equipment availability. Production volumes for 2025 are still expected to be 7.0-million to 7.2-million tonnes.

Natref production was 24% higher than the previous quarter, but 27% lower than a year ago due to the planned shutdown and start-up delays in the first quarter of 2025. Sasol now expects full-year volumes to increase by 0%-10% compared with 2024, down from the previous guidance of 5%-15% higher.

Oryx GTL production ramped up as planned in the first quarter and both trains are stable after the shutdown. Production for 2025 is still expected to increase by 40%-60% compared with 2024.

Liquid fuel sales volumes were 1% lower than the previous quarter and 9% lower than a year ago due to the lower production at Natref and Secunda. Sasol still expects sales volumes to be within the previous guidance of 0%-4% higher and will keep exploring opportunities to optimise the channel mix to enhance financial performance.

Chemicals Africa’s sales revenue was 9% lower than the previous quarter due to lower sales volumes, with the average basket price remaining flat. Sales volumes were 9% lower in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter due to the challenges at Secunda and export vessel scheduling movements, which will shift sales into the second quarter.

Chemicals America’s sales revenue was 2% higher than the previous quarter, while Chemicals Eurasia’s revenue decreased by 4% due to lower volumes and pricing.

Sasol said the stronger rand, significant oil price volatility and lower refining margins affected the first-quarter business performance. Global chemicals markets remain oversupplied, with higher input costs and weak chemical prices and demand, which affected the group’s margins.

The group said the 69MW Msenge Emoyeni Wind Farm in the Eastern Cape started commercial operations in October supplying power to Sasolburg operations via the national grid. The project, completed in 18 months, marks a key milestone for Sasol in meeting its 1,200MW renewable energy target by 2030.

Sasol’s share price fell the most in four weeks on Tuesday, down 5.03% to R108.12. It has fallen almost 42% so far this year.

mackenziej@arena.africa