Goldman Sachs’ profit climbs amid inflation and recession fears

Bengaluru/New York — Goldman Sachs reported a 15% rise in first-quarter profit as market volatility led to record revenue in equities trading and boosted fixed income results.

The Wall Street lender joined rivals JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley in reporting higher profits. But investors have shifted their focus on to economic projections, which are being clouded by uncertainty over tariffs that could spur inflation and trigger a recession.

Goldman’s profit rose to $4.74bn, or $14.12 per share, for the three months ended March 31, the bank said on Monday. That compared with $4.13bn, or $11.58 per share, a year earlier.

“While we are entering the second quarter with a markedly different operating environment than earlier this year, we remain confident in our ability to continue to support our clients,” CEO David Solomon said.

The turbulent markets lifted Goldman’s equities trading revenue by 27% to a record $4.2bn as investors scrambled to remake their portfolios to mitigate the hit from the new tariffs.

Fixed income, currency and commodities trading revenue rose 2% to $4.4bn. Goldman’s shares rose 2.5% to $507 before the bell.

However, caution from corporate clients may limit growth in the coming months as businesses navigate the steepest trade barriers in more than a century.

Initial public offerings are yet to recover meaningfully. The benchmark S&P 500 index has dropped about 9% so far this year and mergers and acquisitions remain subdued.

Goldman’s investment banking fees fell 8% to $1.9bn in the quarter.

The shift underscores a dramatic change in sentiment for a sector that, until just a few months ago, had been celebrating US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Goldman’s shares have fallen 12% since the tariffs were unveiled earlier this month, while rival JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are 4% and 9% lower, respectively.

But concerns had emerged even before the latest slide. Brokerage Oppenheimer downgraded Goldman’s shares in March, warning that the Trump administration's aggressive efforts to upend global trade norms could hit a slew of firms reliant on capital markets activity.

Revenue at Goldman’s asset and wealth management arm, the unit that caters to institutions and high net-worth individuals, fell 3% to $3.68bn. The bank supervised a record $3.17-trillion of assets in the first quarter.

An executive from Goldman’s asset division said earlier this month that the tariffs were a “growth shock”, and the bank’s economists increased, then rescinded, their forecast for the odds of a recession as the US tariffs were announced and later delayed.

Goldman also set aside $287m in provisions for credit losses, compared with $318m last year.

Solomon was awarded an $80m stock bonus to stay at the helm for another five years. President and COO John Waldron, widely viewed as Solomon’s successor, was also awarded a retention bonus of $80m in restricted stock.

It marked a striking reversal for the management team, which had come under fire after Goldman’s costly misstep in consumer banking. After losing billions, the bank has since pivoted back to its traditional strongholds of investment banking and trading.

Still, there has been pushback from sceptics who view the compensation as excessive. Proxy advisers Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis have called on investors to reject the awards, complicating the board’s efforts to retain top talent after an executive exodus in recent years.

The bank’s annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for April 23, where shareholders will vote on several proposals, including the one on pay.

While the outcome of the vote is not binding, boards often take it into consideration while shaping future decisions.

Reuters