Mexican tequila firms brace for Trump tariff plan

London — About $3bn in tequila and mescal imports from top makers of the popular spirits, Diageo and Jose Cuervo owner Becle, are at risk from US president-elect Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on Mexico, according to Mexican customs data reviewed by Reuters.

Trump, who takes office on January 20, has said he will slap 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as additional duties on Chinese goods, which would hit companies in sectors from autos to retail.

These would also drive up the cost of importing spirits that cannot be made elsewhere, such as tequila, which is used in cocktails such as margaritas and growing in popularity globally after taking off in the US, as well as mescal. Such as French champagne or Italian Parmesan cheese, products using the names tequila or mescal must be made in Mexico.

That leaves Diageo, the world’s top spirits maker, and Mexican firm Becle, the largest tequila producer, exposed. Together, they dominate the US market for the agave-based drinks, and rely heavily on tequila sales in the US for growth.

Diageo subsidiaries shipped more than 25-million litres of tequila from Mexico to the US last year, including brands Don Julio, Casamigos, DeLeon and 21 Seeds, according to Mexican export data provided by ImportYeti.

That equates to 33.7-million 750ml bottles, Reuters calculated. The data references various editions of each brand, from the cheapest ‘blanco’ versions to more expensive labels such as Don Julio 1942, which sells for $139.99 at US spirits retailer Total Wines & More, offering the most detailed insight yet into the value of imports exposed to the tariffs.

Based on the prices per 750ml at Total Wines & More, one of Diageo’s largest US customers, the US tequila imports recorded in the data would be worth almost $1.6bn.

A similar analysis of Becle’s US shipments of eight tequila or mescal brands found they also had a sales value of almost $1.6bn.

Campari Group, the next largest listed spirits maker with a popular tequila brand in the US, sent tequila with a sales value of just $122m.

Diageo said it had decades of experience navigating trade policy and has always taken trade disputes in its stride. “We will work with the incoming administration on issues that affect our business,” it said.

Becle did not respond to requests for comment. Campari declined to comment.

Analysis shows just how much is at stake for top producers that dominate the US tequila and mescal markets if tariffs come into force. US industry imports totalled $4.6bn in 2023, up 160% since 2019, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the US (Discus), which has warned the tariffs would cost jobs.

Discus said it planned to seek an exemption to Trump’s proposed universal tariffs of 10% on all foreign goods.

PRICE HIKES

Diageo also sold at least $483.4m in Canadian whisky in the year to end-November, according to Circana data covering US store sales, leaving it doubly exposed to tariffs via imports from Canada.

Alongside tequila, its Crown Royal Canadian whisky sales make up another hefty chunk of its US business, where slipping performance has prompted concern among investors.

Both Diageo and Becle, meanwhile, have been struggling amid slowing demand for expensive spirits as a boom seen during the Covid pandemic evaporates.

In the US, cheaper tequila brand Kendall Jenner’s 818 Tequila has been gaining market share, while pricier labels such as Diageo’s Casamigos have lost out as consumers become more price conscious.

Analysis based the value on prices for standard size bottles at US online liquor stores. Where it was not possible to determine the brand or sub-brand contained in shipments, Reuters assumed they contained the cheapest possible bottles.

In reality, shipments contain different sized bottles to be sold at different price points, including in venues such as bars where they fetch a higher margin.

While a 25% hit to $1.6bn in sales would amount to $400m, tariffs are usually based on import value rather than sales prices. Companies would also take actions to mitigate the tariff impact, such as hiking prices, said Joseph Gabelli, a portfolio manager at Diageo investor Gabelli Funds.

Jefferies analysts estimated in November that prices would have to rise 10% to offset the affect of a 25% tariff.

At least with tequila and mescal, tariffs would not put certain firms at a competitive disadvantage, Gabelli said.

The question is whether US drinkers would swallow any price rises, he continued.

“Does it cause a reduction in consumption if tequila becomes more expensive? Presumably there would be some negative effect,” he said.

Reuters