US election-related bets suggest a delayed result, JPMorgan says
An RBC survey shows that the US presidential election is now the biggest worry among institutional investors
Singapore — Key US markets now appear to be pricing in the risk of a delayed or inconclusive result from the upcoming presidential election, according to new analysis from JPMorgan Chase.
Pricing for volatility protection in interest rates — where investors trade and hedge bond exposure through various derivatives — is “very high relative to the same stage in previous cycles,” strategists led by Joshua Younger said in a note published on Tuesday. Both over-the-counter derivatives and options on US treasury futures show volatility priced at about six times its normal level, compared with a rate of two times normal in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and three times in 2016, when Donald Trump surprised pollsters by defeating Hillary Clinton...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.