Highlights of the latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer

Tanzania is now ranked fourth highest in terms of overall attractiveness for trade in Africa, according to Issue 4 of the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB).

The Standard Bank ATB serves as Africa’s leading trade index, with the intent of addressing the information vacuum of reliable African trade data that can support and enable the growth of intra-Africa trade.

The 10 countries that are included — Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, SA, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia — are all African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) signatory nations. Together, they represent 66% of the continent’s GDP and 45% of its population.

The Standard Bank ATB covers seven broad thematic categories of data that impact on Africa’s trade, and upon which the barometer scores each country. These categories are: trade openness, access to finance, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, foreign trade, governance and economy, and traders’ financial behaviour.

Tanzania’s leap in the rankings — from eighth position last year to fourth place in the latest report — was boosted by its substantial investments in infrastructure and better access to finance, enabling businesses to engage more actively in cross-border trade.

On the downside, Ghana experienced a sharp decline, moving from third position to the seventh spot, underscoring the pressures its economy continues to endure. Its sharp decline also raises concerns about its ability to maintain trade competitiveness, even as one of West Africa’s most stable and democratic countries.

Its decline in the trade rankings is mainly due to a worsening macroeconomic environment and falling trade confidence. As economic volatility intensified in Ghana, its ability to facilitate seamless trade came under strain, making it harder for businesses to access foreign currency, most notably USD, that is required to pay for imports and thus engage in cross-border activities especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, which this barometer favours.

“As Africa moves towards greater integration under the AfCFTA, the Standard Bank ATB offers critical insights into the opportunities and challenges faced by African businesses and stakeholders in facilitating trade. The shifts detailed in the report further reflect changing macroeconomic conditions, infrastructure challenges and access to finance, among many others, which are all impacting the trade environments of the 10 countries featured,” says Philip Myburgh, group head of Trade at Standard Bank Business and Commercial Banking.

Overall, the latest Standard Bank ATB trade attractiveness rankings reveal a dynamic shift in trade standings compared to the previous year. Tanzania, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia recorded improvements in their positions, while declines were recorded for Ghana, Uganda and Kenya. Meanwhile SA, Namibia and Angola retained their rankings.

Overall, the macroeconomic conditions across the countries present a mixed outlook, with relatively sustained growth tempered by ongoing challenges. The estimated real GDP growth rate for 2025 stands at 4.3%, reflecting steady progress despite headwinds. Positive developments include infrastructure investments, economic diversification efforts, and increased production in sectors like oil, mining and agriculture.

However, high inflation, forecasted to reach 9.9% in 2024, remains a pressing concern, driven by currency depreciation and worsened by weather events such as severe droughts in Southern Africa and flooding in East Africa.

Amid these complex dynamics, it is evident that the path forward will require a focus on prudent economic management, diversified growth strategies and bolstering resilience against climate risks.

As a trusted partner for the growth of the businesses that continue to power Africa’s dynamic economies, Standard Bank’s ATB report serves as a tool for businesses to make strategic decisions that foster sustainable trade and economic development across the continent.

“Given our position as Africa’s largest bank, we understand that reliable trade data is essential for making informed business decisions, particularly in the context of a dynamic and evolving trade environment,” says Myburgh.

“The Standard Bank ATB provides businesses, governments and investors with the insights they need to navigate challenges and seize new opportunities on the continent.”

Click here to read Issue 4 of the Standard Bank ATB.

This article was sponsored by Standard Bank.