Exports to Europe by contrast grew by only 96.4% over the same period to R181 billion. Exports to the rest of Africa grew by 182% to R108.4 billion. This meant that exports to Asia accounted for 35.4% of total exports in 2011 from 23.3% in 2003, while exports to Europe dropped from a 33.7% share in 2003 to 25.6% in 2011. The rest of Africa's share went from 14.1% to 15.3%.

This makes sense in terms of export strategy as Asia, especially China and India, have been growing far faster than Europe.

In 2011, exports to Asia grew by 27.1% from 2010, while exports to Europe only increased by 12.4%, while total exports grew by 19.9%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on January 24 cut its global growth forecast for 2012 to 3.3% in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) from the 4.0% forecast in September 2011. It said the cut was due to the euro area crisis entering "a perilous new phase". SA's growth in 2012 has been cut to 2.5% from 3.6%, while 2013 growth was lowered to 3.4% from 4.0%.

The SA Treasury in October 2011 forecast SA growth at 3.1% in 2011 rising to 3.4% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013, but warned that this was dependent on global growth. Most economists expect 2.8% growth in 2012, about the same as in 2011. Statistics SA will release its first estimate of 2011 growth on February 28.

The updated WEO projections see global activity decelerating but not collapsing. Most advanced economies avoid falling back into a recession, while activity in emerging and developing economies slows from a high pace. However, this is predicated on the assumption that in the euro area, policymakers intensify efforts to address the crisis.

As a result, sovereign bond premiums stabilise near current levels and start to normalise in early 2013. Also, policies succeed in limiting deleveraging by euro area banks. Credit and investment in the euro area contract only modestly, with limited financial and trade spillovers to other regions.

The IMF now expects the eurozone economy to go into a mild recession in 2012, which is consistent with what was presented as a downside scenario in the January 2011 WEO Update. The significant downward revision to 0.5% contraction from a 1.1% rise in the September 2011 WEO is due to the rise in sovereign yields, the effects of bank deleveraging on the real economy, and the impact of additional fiscal consolidation announced by euro area governments.

During 2012-13, growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to average around 5.75%, which is a significant slowdown from the 6.7% growth registered during 2010-11 and about 0.5% lower than projected in the September 2011 WEO.

This reflects the deterioration in the external environment, as well as the slowdown in domestic demand in key emerging economies. The impact of the global slowdown on sub-Saharan Africa has to date been limited to a few countries - most notably, SA - and the region's output is expected to expand by around 5.5% in 2012.