12 December, 2011 13:54

BusinessLIVE

Uranium sector continues to face price uncertainty

The global uranium sector has faced near-term price uncertainty since the March nuclear crisis in Japan and the dynamics driving the near-term sector outlook continue to be dominated by the aftermath of that nuclear event, Resources Capital Research (RCR) said in its December quarter note.

"Sector performance has also been impacted by broader global equity market volatility resulting from slow US economic activity and ongoing sovereign debt issues in the advanced economies," RCR said in the note released at the weekend.

In the past month, the uranium majors have had mixed share price performance with Uranium One (UUU), which has interests in SA, declining by 12%.

RCR said global uranium majors have significantly underperformed the broader share market over the past 12 months, largely due to set backs following Fukushima.

Immediately prior to the Japanese earthquake on March 11, the spot price of uranium had been trading at US$67.75/lb, a 12 month high.

The spot price is currently US$52.25/lb.

"The dynamics driving the near term sector outlook continue to be dominated by the aftermath of Fukushima, including Germany's decision to close reactors and the potential for disposal of surplus utility inventory," said RCR.

It added that the spot market had been trading in the range of US$51/lb to US$53/lb recently, except for a short breakout in November.

"Traders indicate they remain cautious going into the first half of 2012. Nonetheless, buying opportunities continue to emerge driven by perceptions of a floor to the uranium spot price holding at around US$50/lb, and the recent emergence of strong strategic investor support and acquisition activity at the large end of the market," the report noted.

Among the largest acquisitions on the table right now include Rio Tinto's offer for the acquisition of Hathor Exploration for around C$654 million or R5.1 billion and an anticipated bid for Extract Resources by Taurus Mineral, an entity owned by China Guangdong Nuclear Power and the China-Africa Development Fund.

Rio Tinto said earlier this month that it had secured shares representing 70.2% of the Canadian uranium explorer's outstanding shares and would extend its offer to secure more of the company.

In the meantime, London and Namibian listed uranium miner Kalahari Minerals on Friday said Taurus Mineral, an entity owned by China Guangdong Nuclear Power and the China-Africa Development Fund, had launched a GBP632 million or R8 billion cash bid for its company.

If successful, the offer would trigger an offer for Australian exploration company Extract Resources, in which Kalahari is the largest shareholder with a 42.79% stake.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission ruled that the Chinese companies must bid for Extract if they secure more than 50% of the voting rights in Kalahari.

Taurus Mineral has offered 243.55 pence or R30.90 a share for Kalahari and the downstream offer for Extract, at AU$8.65 or R71.74 a share, would value Extract at around AU$2.17 billion or R18 billion.

While there has been no indication of a rival bid for Extract, there was media speculation earlier in December that Rio Tinto might make a play for the Namibian miner.

The sudden interest in uranium mining companies appears warranted if one considers the longer-term outlook.

"Sector fundamentals appear positive in the mid and long term. Over 84 new nuclear power reactors are expected to be commissioned globally by 2017, with 62 currently under construction," RCR said.

According to the World Nuclear Agency, there are 499 new reactors planned or proposed, including 171 in China, 57 in India, 44 in Russia, 34 in the US, and 13 in Ukraine.

The contract uranium price is US$62.50/lb (Nov 30). It has drifted down from US$64.50/lb (August 31), falling about US$0.50/lb per month.

"While it may trend a little weaker in the near term, we expect the contract price to remain around the US$60-70/lb mark. This level should support development decisions at a number of advanced uranium development projects, particularly in Namibia," it said.
 



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