"The dislocation currently characterising the global equities
and bonds markets, is spurring a growing number of risk averse investors to seek
refuge in the stable cash flows offered by core commercial assets," Levitt said.
According to a report released by global real estate services firm Jones
Lang LaSalle, there was $103.5 billion in direct commercial real estate
investment globally in the second quarter of 2011, which is up 50% from a year
ago.
Levitt suggested that together with the low volatility
characteristics of prime investment properties, one of the key drivers of
investor interest in quality commercial property was the fact that unlike other
asset classes, property was tangible and transparent.
"While renewed
economic concerns are challenging investor confidence, the results yielded from
auctions in the second, third and fourth quarters of this year, are painting a
contrasting picture, with prime commercial assets continuing to be snapped up at
competitive prices by investors seeking stable investments".
Investors
were incorporating a variety of creative strategies to avoid additional risk and
to make their investments work, and whilst concerns about sovereign debt in the
Eurozone and decelerating growth in the US economy had caused significant
uncertainty in the real estate sector, Levitt expected demand for good quality
properties to persist.
"In contrast with the capricious nature of the
equities and bonds markets, the returns from commercial property tend to be less
volatile; a critical factor which is highly important to risk-averse investors."
He said the local equity market had experienced extreme instability in
2011 with three spikes in volatility since the financial crisis in 2008. While
the JSE was down 3% since the beginning of the year and the Dow Jones remained
flat, the capricious nature of the market does not instil uniform investor
confidence.
On a global front, the recent announcement by Mervin King,
governor of the Bank of England, that the bank would inject GBP 75 billion into
the UK economy in an effort to quell the recession was a poor indictment on the
future outlook for the equity market. King adds that, "the current financial
situation is the most serious financial crisis since at least the 1930s, if not
ever."
Levitt said that the general consensus among economic
commentators pointed to the fact that investors were chasing cash flow as their
primary motive. Investors were proceeding cautiously in this market and
re-evaluating their exposure to equities.
The supply gap for prime
assets had expanded within the sector during the second half of 2011. Levitt
maintained that investors had grown increasingly selective with their
investments, with investor interest focused on core markets, and interest in
secondary markets stalling significantly. He expected demand for prime assets in
established nodes, where new capacity is being built, to persist.
"Rental levels and valuations have held their own in key nodes such as
the Sandton CBD, Rosebank, the Cape Town CBD and Century City".
Placing
the auction sector within the context of a wider investment market place, Levitt
predicted that the commercial real estate sector was headed for a continued and
gradual recovery. Whilst the commercial property sector remained susceptible to
market instability, the quality of a property's location and covenant, would
dictate demand and determine how it was priced.