Brace for further charges against Gordhan
SA’s Game of Thrones
Gordhan may seem to be pulling ahead in the bitterly contested race for SA’s heart and soul — but arch-survivor Jacob Zuma is certainly a long way from being a spent force
What it means: Brace for further charges against Gordhan; likely downgrade to junk. There is a narrative gaining currency in SA, but particularly among foreign investors, that the fraud charges against finance minister Pravin Gordhan will not hold up in court, that President Jacob Zuma has overreached himself and that this will spell his end, leading SA to a positive economic turnaround. However, several political and economic analysts have warned that this view underestimates Zuma’s staying power, suggesting that financial markets are underpricing SA’s political risk. This means the rand could fall a lot further if Gordhan is axed and SA loses its investment-grade credit rating.The view that Gordhan will prevail has been bolstered in the past week by two developments. First was the mass outpouring of public support for Gordhan following the National Prosecuting Authority’s (NPA’s) decision to charge him with fraud. This was accompanied by statements of solidarity from within the AN...
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