Should the world stay in bed in 2017?
After a horrible 2016, there are reasons to believe global growth could be modestly stronger next year
In 1977, British New Wave singer Ian Dury released a song called "Reasons to be Cheerful". The song implored the protagonist to get out of bed and consists of a long list of reasons to do so. Dury himself was a polio sufferer and spent much of his youth in a full-body plaster cast. He died of cancer in 2000 but was still playing gigs six weeks before his death. The year 2016 feels in some ways like Dury’s song; the situation demands not just a presumption of optimism but a specified list of "reasons to be cheerful". For those who want to go down the path, happily there are a number of reasons that could feature in 2017. Top of this list is global economic growth. The IMF is predicting a thumping turnaround in emerging market growth in 2017, extending the modest gains made in 2016. Overall, emerging markets recorded 4% real GDP growth in 2015; that edged up to 4.2% this year — and the IMF has growth rising by 400 basis points every year for the next four years. There are too many var...
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