SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Africa in 2017: Another race of East against West
Trade integration, sector diversification, robust investment and export growth have boosted East Africa’s growth
Informed largely by structurally lower, albeit recovering, commodity prices, Africa as a whole faces another challenging year, with growth expected to rise only marginally from last year’s 1.5%. Yet, at regional level, countries’ performances will be diverse. Next year is stacking up to be another race of “East vs West”, with Southern Africa coming in at a distant third place. Taking the honours will be East Africa, where countries like Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia will continue to outpace their peers. Collectively, this trio stand to catapult the region through deepening trade integration, sector diversification, robust fixed investment and export growth. Taking some gloss off the region’s performance will be Mozambique, which has one of the largest current and fiscal account deficits on the continent, and is in the midst of a debt crisis. Still, it accounts for only 5% of East Africa’s GDP, and is therefore unlikely to prevent East Africa’s growth rate from accelerating to around ...
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