An uncertain future
Trump presidency could spell hard times for SA
Economists are worried that all this spending, coupled with a decline in productivity caused by rising trade barriers, could ignite inflation in the US with ripple effects across the world If the worst expectations of the Trump presidency are realised, SA is likely to be heading for a recession, higher inflation and a weaker rand. Ultimately, it can probably also kiss millions of dollars in US aid and trade preferences goodbye. In one respect SA is incredibly fortunate: the centrepiece of SA-US trade relations, the African Growth & Opportunities Act (Agoa), was extended by the US congress last year until 2025 after fraught negotiations. This means SA’s R16.6bn annual duty-free exports to the US are safe for the next 10 years. However, if Trump executes his policy manifesto by retreating into a protectionist stance, tearing up unsigned trade agreements and levying punitive tariffs on America’s trade partners, key pillars of the global trade architecture could be dismantled. At worst,...
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