Poor retail sales and Trump factor cloud China’s economic outlook
Even if Donald Trump can deliver the massive stimulus package he promised, this alone cannot justify the extreme optimism being priced in, writes Clyde Russell
Beijing — China’s economy largely showed further signs of steadying in October as expected, but disappointing retail sales growth and fears of US trade frictions under incoming President Donald Trump are increasingly clouding the outlook. Fixed-asset investment quickened slightly and beat expectations in January-October as the government stepped up infrastructure spending to support growth, official data showed on Monday. But other indicators released over the past week — from exports to bank lending, as well as expectations of a slowdown in the heated property market — suggest economic momentum may falter in coming months. "On balance, today’s data suggest that the recent recovery in economic activity continued into the fourth quarter," said Capital Economics. "We expect growth to hold up well for another quarter or two. However, with credit growth now slowing and the property market beginning to cool the drivers of the recent recovery look set to fizzle out early next year." China...
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