Every four years, the CIA’s National Intelligence Council gives an incoming president and his administration an assessment of the most powerful global forces likely to affect foreign and domestic affairs. Known as the CIA’s Global Trends, the report is available to the public and normally has a time horizon of five years and beyond. Donald Trump would probably want to dismiss the 235-page 2017 edition with a tweet after getting just half-way down the first summary page. The next five years, the report says, will close an era of US dominance since the Cold War. He would undoubtedly see this as a personal affront to his promise to "make America great again". Ironically, Trump’s behaviour during his presidential campaign and transition lends credence to one of the report’s general forecasts that the next five years will see rising tension within and between countries. He has stirred tension with a range of countries, making controversial statements that offended, among others, European...

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