Randall Carolissen’s article on tax buoyancy (The art of using tax buoyancy figures to forecast revenue and track changes, March 22) and the predicted revenue shortfall for 2016-17 can be summarised as: tax forecasting and the reasons underlying changes in buoyancy can be complicated. Indeed. But, as he seems to accept, the forecast collapse in buoyancy from 2015-16 to 2016-17 is almost unprecedented in democratic SA, outside a period associated with an international financial crisis. Combine that with allegations of delayed refunds in 2015-16 that would have artificially inflated net revenue collection and led to an otherwise unexpected shortfall in 2016-17, and there is an obvious basis for concern. While the ombud’s investigation proceeds, what is stopping the revenue service from releasing detailed statistics on all categories of refunds by value and time taken? That would enable statistical and econometric analyses, which by Carolissen’s version should assist in confirming that...
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