News from some of SA’s leading retail groups lately has not been good and their share prices have been hammered accordingly. This is hardly surprising, given what’s been happening for South African consumers. Unemployment has been rising, and disposable incomes have been sliding, with disposable income in the second quarter of 2016 up just 1.2% in real (inflation-adjusted) terms on the same quarter in 2015. Banks and other lenders have been tightening up on consumer credit, with more than half of new credit applications rejected by credit providers in the first half of 2016. Consumer confidence has continued to fall and is at its lowest level since the financial crisis. The Reserve Bank reported that real household consumption expenditure, which was negative in the first quarter of 2016, grew just 1% in the second quarter. Barclays economists now expect household consumption expenditure to rise a mere 0.4% in 2016 and just 0.9% in 2017, after quite muted growth of 2.2% in 2015. SA’s...
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