Nomura forecasts a 12% weakening of the rand this year
Moody’s has announced it will publish reviews of SA’s sovereign rating on April 7, August 11 and November 24, and S&P Global Ratings on June 2 and November 24
Japanese investment bank Nomura forecast "a relatively benign depreciation to R15.50/$ at end-2017" in a research note released on Thursday evening. This would indicate about a 12% weakening of the rand over the coming year from the R13.64/$ it was trading at on at Friday morning. The forecast is mainly based on the assumption the dollar will strengthen against most currencies, and the rand is expected to fare better than its peers such as the Turkish lira, Nomura’s head of emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa economics Peter Attard Montalto wrote in the note. The report started with an acknowledgement that Nomura’s rand forecast for 2016 had been way off the mark, predicting the rand would weaken from R15.74/$ to about R19/$ when it actually ended last year 11% stronger. Attard Montalto said this forecast was based on the assumption the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates four times over 2016, whereas it actually only raised interest rates once. "We do regret it and th...
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