ON THE UPSIDE
Two charts that show the global economy is about to take off
"This suggests global trade accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter and is also indicative of a strengthening in global growth momentum in late 2016"
And now, for some good news. The great rotation out of defensive stocks and bonds in favor of growth-sensitive assets that's been inspired by Donald Trump's electoral victory finds support in a bevy of recent data, from China's manufacturing purchasing managers index, to U.S. consumer sentiment, to industrial output in the euro area. Step back and a big picture emerges. Global trade volumes are staging an expansion while positive economic surprises in developed markets are on a tear, in a boon for global output. Underscoring those shifts are Morgan Stanley's high-frequency trade data, which suggest import-export volumes will prove to have staged a sharp acceleration in the fourth quarter of the year. The bank's proprietary trade index — the Global Trade Leading Indicator (MSGTLI) — surged in November, driven principally by a rise in the Baltic Dry Index, which measures commodity shipping costs. It jumped to a two-year high in the wake of Trump's victory, at the same time that there ...
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