SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PRODUCTION
Decline in mining output to hit GDP
The sombre mining statistics follow the World Bank’s forecast of a modest recovery for SA
Mining production contracted at a faster pace in November, signalling that it may contribute negatively to fourth-quarter economic growth. The release of the sombre mining statistics comes as the World Bank forecasts a modest recovery for SA over the next two years from low growth of 0.4% it expects for 2016. Output dropped in nine of the 12 mineral groups, with the largest declines in platinum group metals, iron ore and gold mineral groups, which account for more than half of total mining production. The seasonally adjusted three-month rolling measure showed a decline in production of 1.5%, indicating that the sector may not help boost the GDP outcome for the fourth quarter. The manufacturing sector output, by comparison, grew 1.9% between November and October, but on a three-month measure fell 1.1%, indicating that this sector was also unlikely to make a positive contribution. Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan said: "Seasonally adjusted [mining] production would have to rise by ov...
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