This time it will be different, and other lies commodity producers tell
Miners have tended to lurch from boom to bust and back to boom without learning from past mistakes, but this time may be different, writes Clyde Russell
Launceston — Anytime you hear the mantra "this time it will be different", it’s probably best to assume the same old cycle will repeat itself. This is especially true for commodity producers, who often appear to lurch from boom to bust and back to boom with little regard for learning from past mistakes. Perhaps this is because commodity cycles can take decades to play out, meaning institutional memory is lost over time, allowing executives to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors. But more likely it is because most CEs in listed commodity majors are either forced by investors to be seen doing something to boost growth or by nature are driven to build and buy new mines. The strong gains in many commodity prices last year, including a doubling of iron ore and coal, have given rise to optimism within the industry that the down cycle in commodities is finally over after five long years of falling prices. Assuming this optimism is justified and prices are at the start of new up cycle...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.