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In 2011, against a threatening global backdrop, most economies in sub-Saharan Africa turned in a solid performance. Growth averaged more than 5% and export shares stayed high.

Nevertheless, specific shocks hit hard, particularly the drought in the Horn of Africa and the spike in global food and fuel prices. In parts of eastern Africa, the re-emergence of inflation presented a new macroeconomic challenge with the central banks of this region being forced to raise their policy rates. The central bank of Kenya for instance raised its benchmark lending rate by 1 100 basis points to 18%.

That is why Jon Shields of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the costs of a fall from the region's tightrope performance of 2011 remain disconcertingly high.

Sub-Saharan Africa had also proved reassuringly resilient to the global financial crisis in 2008-09. Although SA and other middle-income economies were unable to escape the global recession, most low-income countries continued to grow at strong rates.

During the first decade of this century, sub-Saharan Africa's performance surpassed the global average, in both rain and shine. As IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde observed during her recent three-country tour of Africa that encompassed Nigeria, Niger, and SA, "good economic policies provided a platform for higher growth, for more investment, and for less poverty."

One element in the region's resurgence this century, which former SA President Thabo Mbeki called "the African century", was a reversal in the long declining trend of real commodity prices. This boosted government revenues and economic activity in some countries. But it was only part of the story. Gains from natural resource revenues in one country often turned out to be another's loss, particularly in the case of oil prices.

Good government policies provided space for increasingly robust private sectors to thrive. Institutions were strengthened and made more accountable, while macroeconomic policies were targeted on stability rather than short-term expediency.

In addition, the impact of military and political conflicts declined, and countries benefited from debt relief. Even intraregional trade began to take off in this more open and predictable environment, while trade and foreign investment became increasingly diversified.

By any measure, this was a stirring start to the millennium according to the IMF. But the region's ability to withstand yet another global tempest in 2012 will depend on a delicate blend of factors.

On the positive side of the ledger is the fact not all the region's eggs are in one basket. Emerging markets have been outperforming advanced economies recently in both good and bad times, and sub-Saharan Africa now exports as much to them and other developing countries as to its traditional trading partners. China, India, and other emerging markets are major customers for both the region's big natural resource exporters and smaller agricultural economies.

Another positive is that global financial ties are relatively loose, so a more severe crisis in the eurozone will have little impact via the banking system as much of commerce is transacted on a cash basis without the need for banking facilities. Outside of SA, the region's dependence on international private capital markets and bank lending remains low.

While a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa saw a resurgence of private inflows in 2010-11, the IMF said that most had been spared the froth in short-term flows that had increased vulnerability in the past. Exposure of domestic banks to foreign financing seemed to be fairly well contained.

The bad news is that Africa is not as isolated from global trade as North Korea is, so immunity is impossible. Whatever happens, declines in global activity and commodity prices will have inescapable consequences for the region's exports, and hence its output, incomes, and government revenues.

Inward remittances and investment flows will be weaker than they otherwise would have been; and knock-on effects on domestic demand and loan quality will result in more difficult credit conditions. A recent simulation by IMF staff suggested that weakness in Europe and the US that reduced global growth by 1.5 percentage points could shave 1 percentage point off the growth rate of a representative low-income country.

In that respect SA is probably the most exposed African country, as it has become increasingly integrated into the global economy and is more exposed than the rest of the region to weaknesses in the world economy, particularly in Europe.

While sound macroeconomic management by the SA government has mitigated the worst effects of the current global slowdown, adverse shocks affecting SA can also quickly spread to neighboring countries through their impact on migrant workers' incomes, exports, regional investment, finance and import revenues.

The other impact of a global slowdown would be via government finances. Higher fiscal deficits will make it more difficult for governments to raise the additional finance necessary to sustain their spending in the face of revenue shortfalls. Few low-income countries have access to foreign market finance, and donor governments are under intense fiscal pressures at home.

That is why the SA government was the first to issue a bond this year in the Central and Eastern European, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) sovereign debt market this year. It launched a 12-yaer US$1.5 billion global bond that attracted $3 billion from 200 institutional investors in less than a day on January 9.

"Africa has strong potential for growth and is certainly not on the back burner at the IMF, as we have 20 programmes running on the African continent. We have 187 members and are prepared to support all our members. Africa receives the largest volume of technical assistance," Lagarde said at a media briefing on January 6 after a meeting with South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

Unemployment and the euro crisis are the biggest threats to the South African economy in 2012 she added and she believed the South African government's focus on unemployment and labour-intensive job creation was the correct policy. Attempts to deal with youth unemployment were not isolated to SA but a global issue.

The promotion of trade within Africa was "a good project to have", but she cautioned that this should not come at the expense of existing trade with traditional trading partners, including Europe.