10 February, 2012 17:34

Helmo Preuss
BusinessLIVE

IMF extends Angola's Stand-By Arrangement

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has approved a request by Angola to extend the country's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) until March 30, 2012, to allow time for the sixth and final review.

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The decision was taken on a lapse of time basis, which means that it is agreed by the board that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

The 27-month arrangement, approved in November 2009, had been scheduled to expire on February 22, 2012.

The SBA provides financing in an amount equivalent to Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 858.9 million (about US$1.34 billion), of which SDR773.01 million (about US$1.2 billion) has been disbursed to date. The final disbursement, equivalent to SDR85.89 million (about US$133.6 million) would become available on completion of the sixth review, which the Executive Board is now expected to consider in late March 2012.

Angola's economy continues on the path of recovery from the 2009 fiscal and balance of payments crises. Despite some difficulties in oil production, real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 3.4% in 2011 due to high growth in the non-oil sector, while inflation had eased to 11.4%.

Helped by higher oil prices, the external current account recorded a surplus equivalent to 7% of GDP while foreign exchange reserves at end-2011 reached the equivalent of 5.3 months of imports.

"The authorities' macroeconomic policy stance in 2011 remained prudent. The fiscal balance recorded a surplus of 12.5% of GDP, up from about 7% in 2010. The non-oil primary deficit was contained at about 44% of non-oil GDP. A broadly stable exchange rate facilitated the achievement of the authorities' inflation objective. Delays in oil revenue transfers to the Treasury imposed an unanticipated financing burden on the budget in the period through end-September, but the pace of transfers picked up in the fourth quarter; and a further correction in early 2012 is expected to ensure that budgetary financing levels are appropriately contained," the IMF said.

"Macroeconomic prospects for 2012 are broadly favourable, with new oil fields coming on stream expected to boost production above 1.8 million barrels per day. However, the outlook is quite sensitive to developments in world oil prices. Implementation of the government's budgetary plans should produce a significant reduction in the non-oil fiscal deficit and help reduce inflation towards single digits. As the global environment remains unusually uncertain, the authorities are committed to achieving a further increase in foreign reserves to provide a stronger buffer against oil revenue volatility.

"Important measures have been adopted to ensure that oil revenues are transferred to the Treasury in a predictable and timely manner. These include the recent decree mandating the phasing out of quasi-fiscal operations by the state-owned oil company in 2012, other than those related to fuel subsidies and the servicing of some external credit lines. In addition, the authorities are investigating the large cumulative residual observed in the fiscal accounts for 2007-2010. While this investigation continues, preliminary data indicate that quasi-fiscal operations undertaken by the state oil company on behalf of the government, financed out of oil revenues but not recorded in the budgetary accounts, can explain a large part of the discrepancy. A more comprehensive analysis will be produced later in the year," the IMF concluded.



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